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Mel Kiper's first mock draft:
St. Louis Rams - Record: 1-15 Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska- Nobody questions that the top need for the Rams is a quarterback. But unless St. Louis trades down -- an extremely difficult proposition on multiple levels -- it shouldn't take a quarterback with its first pick. Suh is maybe the most dominating defensive tackle I've seen in 32 years of doing this. He can be effective immediately for the Rams.
Detroit Lions - Record: 2-14 Gerald McCoy*, DT, Oklahoma- Getting McCoy both fills a big need for the Lions and is an extraordinarily good consolation prize for any team unable to get Suh. McCoy makes his living in the opponent's backfields and is such a talent he could have landed in this position last year had he declared as a redshirt sophomore.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Record: 3-13 Eric Berry*, S, Tennessee- This is very early for a safety to go off the board, but Berry is that kind of talent. A player compared often (not unfairly) to Ed Reed, Berry is a difference-making safety headed to a league that has seen those types (Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders) become more and more notable in recent years.
Washington Redskins - Record: 4-12 Sam Bradford*, QB, Oklahoma- Mike Shanahan and the Redskins can get a quarterback here who might have been the top player taken had he opted to come out last year. The Redskins need to find their franchise quarterback, and when healthy, Bradford is an exceptionally accurate passer with an underrated arm. Shanahan also hit on his last QB selection, when he drafted Jay Cutler in Denver.
Kansas City Chiefs - Record: 4-12 Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State- I think the Chiefs could use help at safety as well, but Berry likely won't fall this far, and they'd be reaching on either of the two other safeties with first-round grades. Okung could solve two problems, making him a good value. He also could step in at LT and allow the Chiefs to move Brandon Albert to the right side. A pick that can pay immediate dividends for the Chiefs.
Seattle Seahawks - Record: 5-11 Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - Many in Seattle will view the offensive line as a greater need, but Morgan fills another huge hole for a team that simply couldn't get to the quarterback in 2009. He represents great value because he can rush the passer, is productive against the run and can even drop back -- a versatile talent. Pete Carroll knows defense and should love what Morgan can offer.
Cleveland Browns - Record: 5-11 Joe Haden*, CB, Florida- I'm not convinced the Browns will be willing to draft a quarterback simply because the position is unsettled. In Haden they can't go wrong with by far the top CB on the board, a player who they can plug in from day one. A deft cover corner and great tackler, Haden is the complete package.
Oakland Raiders - Record: 5-11 Anthony Davis*, OT, Rutgers - Davis may not yet be the most complete tackle in the first round, but he is the most naturally gifted and should get better. Great feet, ideal size and he has the ability to maul defenders in the run game. After a whiff in the first round last year, the Raiders address a big need here.
Buffalo Bills - Record: 6-10 Jimmy Clausen*, QB, Notre Dame- People will debate the merits of Clausen long after he shakes the commissioner's hand, but he has continued to improve, showed toughness, has an NFL arm and perhaps most importantly, has experience under center in a pro-style offense. That was a key for Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez and is a huge consideration for scouts. Denver Broncos (from Chicago) - Record: 7-9 Dez Bryant*, WR, Oklahoma State - In all likelihood, Brandon Marshall is headed elsewhere, so the Broncos attempt to fill the void with the best deep threat in the draft. Bryant has great size and was unstoppable in the Big 12. He represents an immediate weapon in the passing game.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Record: 7-9 Jason Pierre-Paul*, DE, South Florida- This is no place to draft a guy like Tim Tebow just to sell tickets. Pierre-Paul is local enough, and could be the Mario Williams of this draft class, a raw talent, but one with remarkable athleticism and an incredible burst off the line. Could be a terror for QBs in the future.
Miami Dolphins - Record: 7-9 Rolando McClain*, LB, Alabama - A potential home run for Miami, who needs an inside linebacker, and could get the best one in the whole draft after the top ten. The Dolphins you could also see go after Bryant if he were to fall to them here.
San Francisco 49ers - Record: 8-8 Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma- I consider the right tackle position a big need for the 49ers, and getting Williams here should strengthen them immediately both in the run game and as they look to further develop a potentially dangerous passing game with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis.
Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) - Record: 5-11 C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson- He's not an offensive lineman, but Spiller could be a Reggie Bush-like option for the Seahawks. For a coach uniquely familiar with what Bush can do, Spiller is a missing home run threat in the run game, a good receiver and a valuable returner. He has elite speed.
New York Giants - Record: 8-8 Carlos Dunlap*, DE, Florida- This is a high value pick for the Giants, who I feel have had their depth on the defense line overstated. There are makeup questions surrounding Dunlap, but for much of the year he was considered the premier pass rusher in the college game. He has the potential to be like a Jevon Kearse.
San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina) - Record: 8-8 Earl Thomas*, S, Texas - The 49ers need help in pass coverage, and Thomas fits because he's a great value here, whereas reaching for a CB at No. 16 wouldn't represent good value at all. Thomas isn't a huge guy, but can cover a tremendous amount of real estate.
Tennessee Titans - Record: 8-8 Everson Griffen*, DE, USC-Pierre- Paul likely won't fall this far, so the Titans get a gifted underclassmen that looked like a pro coming out of high school who is now living up to his potential. He already has an NFL frame, and when Griffen is consistent, he's a strong pass rusher.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Record: 9-7 Bryan Bulaga*, OT, Iowa- Pittsburgh clearly needs help up front if they want to return to power running and protecting the quarterback, and Bulaga is an emerging tackle with great feet from a pro-style system. They improve immediately, and he wears the black and gold well already.
Atlanta Falcons - Record: 9-7 Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas- The Falcons could use some help at OLB, and Kindle's continued improvement throughout the season is appealing. He's not quite in the class of Brian Orakpo, but he's a similar type of player, and has also proven to be very physical.
Houston Texans - Record: 9-7 Brian Price*, DT, UCLA - Price is hidden away a bit in such a deep class of defensive lineman, but he's a disruptive force who utilizes great leverage. He should add depth to an improving defense.
Cincinnati Bengals - Record: 10-6 Aaron Hernandez*, TE, Florida- They need to give Carson Palmer options in the passing game aside from what's there, and Hernandez is the most athletic TE available, a guy with surprising run-after-catch ability. The favorite target of Tebow at Florida, he could offer immediate help in the passing game.
New England Patriots - Record: 10-6 Ricky Sapp, OLB, Clemson- The Patriots clearly need help when it comes to getting to opposing quarterbacks, and Sapp is an ideal fit on the edge in the 3-4. He's the kind of athlete that can adjust to being upright and flat out knows how to get to the quarterback.
Green Bay Packers - Record: 11-5 Taylor Mays, S, USC- If you told Green Bay they could get Mays at No. 23 overall in August, they'd have been thrilled. An extraordinary athlete, Mays may have suffered against expectations, but the Pack hit a home run with Clay Matthews Jr. out of USC last year and Mays both fills a need and has great potential.
Philadelphia Eagles - Record: 11-5 Navorro Bowman*, OLB, Penn State- The Eagles have a need for an athletic OLB, and they get a lot of value by landing Bowman here. Bowman lacks size, but any parsing on measurables can't overcome his great play on film. Could end up as the best at his position in this class.
Baltimore Ravens - Record: 9-7 Jermaine Gresham*, TE, Oklahoma- Gresham is so good that while he sat out his junior year, I left him on the Big Board the whole time. Now healthy, he's a great find this late in the first and a perfect target for Joe Flacco as an heir to Todd Heap. At a hair over 6-6 and 262 pounds, he's the total package at TE.
Arizona Cardinals - Record: 10-6 Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee - I see this position as the second-biggest need for the Cardinals and Williams is a great value here. Tremendously strong in the lower body, Williams is a disruptive force against the run.
Dallas Cowboys - Record: 11-5 Bruce Campbell*, OT, Maryland - Jerry Jones knows he needs to address the tackle position after the debacle he witnessed against Minnesota in the playoffs and Campbell, while still learning, is a tremendous talent at this position.
San Diego Chargers - Record: 13-3 Jonathan Dwyer*, RB, Georgia Tech- With the possible departure of LaDainian Tomlinson on the horizon, Dwyer represents the player that can handle 20-plus carries in an offense that already has a great speed-back in Darren Sproles. Dwyer has ideal size and also shows explosiveness.
New York Jets - Record: 9-7 Golden Tate*, WR, Notre Dame- The Jets must give Mark Sanchez some weapons in the passing game, and while Tate has question marks on his ability to separate, he's more physical than many think and has always been a playmaker. In the mold of a Laveranues Coles.
Minnesota Vikings - Record: 12-4 Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State - Need meets value here. Robinson is the second-best corner in the draft and Minnesota should be happy to grab him this late. Robinson has the chance to step in and contribute.
New Orleans Saints - Record: 13-3 Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State- Odrick is an ideal pick here for the Saints, who are looking to add stability to the rush defense. His presence helped standout LBs Bowman and Sean Lee run free, and the Saints will ask for the same.
Indianapolis Colts - Record: 14-2 Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan - Graham was a one-man show for the Wolverines, leading the nation in tackles for loss. Always in the backfield, he's a guy that can learn under master pass-rushers in Indy and build on the tradition.
**Draft Order subject to change following the results of this weekends playoff action. The Super Bowl participants will own the final two picks of the draft. The Jets face the Colts at 3pm ET while the Vikings will visit the Saints at 6:40pm ET
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